Charles R. Morris – The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash

Morris is smart, pissed, and just the kind of crochety old “In my day…” guy I would want to be in charge of my money, if I had any.

Though the writer’s political leanings are pretty obviously to the left of center, they serve to underscore an important truth: every American is a free-market capitalist, however much he may have loved the Che Guevara poster on his dorm-room wall.

Morris essentially explains (and predicts, given it was written about a year ago) the current financial crash. He writes with more flair than most in his field and also shows certain daring with many of the ideas he expresses. Here are some examples:

“Intellectuals are reliable lagging indicators, near-infallible guides to what used to be true.”

“In its modern form, Chicago school economics has mutated from a style of analysis into a Theory of Everything. For almost any public or social issue, adherents believe, the free market, if allowed to work without obstruction, will consistently produce optimal outcomes. The omnivorous streak in Chicago economics has drawn it into the realms of crime, welfare, education, health care, and other areas once thought to be mostly outside economics purview.”

“As a general rule, only the very smartest people can make truly catastrophic mistakes.”

This book is a short but sturdy treatment of a crisis that Morris and other predicted, and that we are currently in the throes of. Morris stops short in more or less the same place George Soros does (I mentioned Soros’s writings in my older posts, he has some brilliant theories too) –– arbitrarily taking a late-channel spot of capitalism and defending it from other economic systems. One wonders if, by the time this crisis is through, the average American will not conclude that capitalism, always and every time, ruins itself. That will likely end the privatizing of profits – or at least the socializing of losses.

According to Morris, the astronomical leverage at investment banks and their hedge fund and private equity clients virtually guarantees massive disruption in global markets. The crash, when it comes, has no firebreaks. A quarter century of free-market zealotry that extolled asset stripping, abusive lending, and hedge fund secrecy crashes down with it.

The Trillion Dollar Meltdown explains how things are likely to get worse before they better. If you aren’t familiar with some of the terminology, it might feel a bit dense to read. If you work in the industry, it will feel like a good, well-written, but long Bloomberg magazine article. Also, if you are a die-hard Chicago free market conservative, a lot of the writing will be very annoying. But given it was written over a year ago, before our economic nuclear winter started, pretty insightful.

As a practical conclusion, the financial crisis is only the beginning: a more profound economic and political restructuring is on its way. Oddest fact from the book? US Economy is about $14 trillion. The world economy is about $54 trillion. Value of financial derivatives before this meltdown began? $500 trillion.

Have a nice reading.

PS inspired by Andrada : nu e trecuta prin Photoshop. Niciuna dintre fotografiile mele nu e trecuta prin Photoshop, in fact. It’s just a matter of taste, not that I hate Photoshop or smth.

El Pais despre Romania la 20 de ani de la Revolutie: Corupta, fara bani si fara guvern

www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/Corrupto/dinero/Gobierno/elpepiint/20091105elpepiint_9/Tes

Asta in contextul in care pana si FMI a amanat acordarea celei de-a treia transe din imprumutul pentru Romania, dupa ce guvernul nu a reusit sa aprobe legile cerute in acord pana la termenele asumate. Tu, care citesti, fii sincer: te-ai gandit cel putin o data sa pleci, nu-i asa?

In loc de concluzie o piesa aparuta in 1988. Cu un an inainte de revolutia din Romania.

(a se inlocui cuvantul “revolution” din versuri cu mult mai potrivitul “change”).

hope you’re okay, whatever you might do. probably i’m not playing fair by saying it on a blog you’re not even aware of, but that’s the whole point. hope you’re okay and safe. just that.

- italian version (if you understand italian, try this, ’cause Roberto Saviano’s comments make the difference)

- CNN version (if you don’t undersand italian, here’s a CNN coverage, emphasizing the disturbing serenity)

Even by the mafia’s brutal standards, the killing of a man smoking a cigarette outside a central Naples bar in broad daylight was shocking in its ruthlessness. Victim’s last cigar, a father who passes by holding the hand of his little girl and then walks away…

But perhaps more disturbing is the reaction of witnesses, who can be seen in a video that has been released by Naples prosecutors in an unprecedented step to try and to find the killer. As the Camorra hitman dispatches his victim with clinical efficiency, a bystander casually checks her lottery scratch card and walks away. Others peer at the body and continue about their business as if the shooting was a normal part of daily life.

The CCTV footage and the aftermath of the crime give a troubling insight into the extent of the Naples mafia’s control of their territory. Although the hit took place on 11 May this year, and the face of the killer is clearly visible on the recording, with witnesses present, investigators have so far met with silence. Till today, when they made it public.

Journalist Roberto Saviano (the one commenting the first footage), who has a permanent armed escort since exposing the activities of the Naples mafia in his best selling book Gomorrah, called the killing a “classic Camorra hit, very well planned and executed without fanfare”. He added that the video “shows what little value these people have for human life,” in a recorded commentary posted on la Repubblica’s website. “The thing that strikes you,” he said, “is the absolute serenity of the killer.”

I really recommend further reading on Roberto Saviano’s (second photo) bestseller story. It has quite an interesting background tale.

This world is blowing my mind. So fuckin’ disturbing. This fuckin’ world is blowing my mind.

Comunicat de presă 
 

     Organizaţia Mensa România, autorizată prin dosarul 464/PJ/1991; 80-6/2264, CIF 17467044, cu sediul în Bucureşti, sectorul 6, str. Cupolei, nr. 4-8, afiliată Mensa Internaţional, anunţă susţinerea primei sesiuni de testare la Cluj-Napoca, duminică, 15 noiembrie 2009, orele 11 pentru toţi cei care doresc să devină membri sau să îşi confirme inteligenţa printr-un test girat de Mensa International. Locul testării este situat în incinta Facultăţii de Business a  Universităţii „Babeş-Bolyai”din Cluj-Napoca, str. Horea, nr. 7, etaj 2, sala 216.

     Mensa este o Organizaţie democratică apolitică, fără discriminări rasiale sau religioase, înfiinţată în 1946 în Anglia, în care singura condiţie de a deveni membru este o inteligenţă superioară dovedită prin obţinerea unui scor care la testele de inteligenţă să te situeze în top 2%. Cele trei scopuri primordiale ale organizaţiei sunt: identificarea şi cultivarea inteligenţei în beneficiul umanităţii; încurajarea cercetării naturii, caracteristicilor şi utilizării inteligenţei; oferirea unui climat intelectual şi social stimulativ membrilor săi.

     Mensa România are în prezent doar 96 membri, pe când ţările vecine, cu populaţii mult mai mici au organizaţii numeroase şi puternice. Noi dorim să le arătăm că suntem mult mai mulţi! De aceea, aşteptăm cu interes întrebările şi participarea dumneavoastră.

     Informaţii suplimentare sunt disponibile la adresa http://www.mensa-romania.ro, sau, mult mai detaliate, la adresa Organizaţiei Mensa Internaţional: http://www.mensa.org 

fact 1: successful companies and brands in social media act more like dale carnegie and less like david ogilvy: listening first, selling second. 

fact 2: clienti offline = robotei sociali online. niciodata divizati.

fact 3: roboteii vorbesc. what’s happened in vegas nu mai ramane in vegas anymore.

fact 4: the “buzz”. declanseaza atitudini online, concretizate prin alegeri offline.

fact 5: social media doesn’t make you (or your business/brand) better. it just shows more people who you are. if you suck in real life you SUCK online (gary vaynerchuck).

si acum povestioara de background, dar pe fast forward, don’t have that much time to write:

am avut o discutie interesanta si foarte contradictorie pe impactul social media asupra brand-urilor. ah, nu, nu e discursul fad la care sigur va ganditi, despre publicitate online. as detalia, pt. ca iubesc bataliile in argumente si-n idei pe viata si pe moarte, dar cum nu am vreme sa scriu chiar acum, deocamdata pe scurt si fast forward: yes, i really think that successful companies and brands in social media act more like dale carnegie and less like david ogilvy: listening first, selling second. mai precis, daca ignori social media cata vreme ai o afacere si un brand, daca tu continui sa crezi ca “da, dar nu conteaza cat de mult se muta totul pe online, pt. ca oricum clientii mei isi vor desfasura in continuare activitatile offline“… perfect de acord. isi vor continua activitatile offline, vor continua sa mearga sa isi cumpere mancare, sa ia taxiul sau sa mearga la dentist. dar faptul ca stau zilnic online le influenteaza decizia. ce aud pe twitter sau facebook despre o firma de taxi sau despre un dentist le influenteaza decizia cand apeleaza la serviciile respective. 150 de oameni (clienti offline, dar in acelasi timp si robotei sociali online) nemultumiti care scot telefonul si pun pe twitter o nemultumire nu dau bine pt. afacere la nivel de incredere in brand/afacere. as mai avea de periat ideea asta, dar nu am timp acum, damn. oricum, ideea mai larga ar fi ca Social Media doesn’t make you better. It just shows more people who you are. If you Suck in real life you SUCK online (Gary Vaynerchuck). si cum orice argumentare - bazata pe fapte, nu presupuneri - nu trebuie sa lase vreodata loc interpretarii, mai jos e un filmuletz social media in cifre. cifrele nu au lasat si nici nu vor lasa vreodata loc interpretarii. gotta go now, to be continued. asadar, tu stiai ca….. ?

“cultura politica romaneasca, o cultura politica in esenta resentimentala.” afirmatia ii apartine lui Bogdan Teodorescu, SNSPA. facuta in cadrul unei dezbateri, pe care, din pacate, nu am prins-o de la inceput. oricum, mi se pare o explicatie mai mult decat decenta pentru esenta culturii politice din romania. pe langa background-ul resentimental, romanasul nu va merge niciodata la vot decat in masura in care viata politica il va incomoda, intr-un fel sau altul. sa ai pretentia ca omul sa mearga la vot in spiritul constiintei civice sau democratice… aiurea! nu in contextul in care, dupa revolutie, asa cum tot teodorescu spune, romanii au perceput democratia nu ca o stare de facto, ci aproximativ cam asa: acces la vh1, acces la mancare decenta, iesiri la paris etc. iar cata vreme vh1 ramane tot acolo unde e, iar viata politica si ce se intampla cu ea nu ii incomodeaza romanasului accesul la vh1, el nu va merge la vot. simplu.